“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.

• gwern estimated 6% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744815 nontrading” on 2011-08-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2011-08-15
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 5% on 2012-04-25
• RandomThinker estimated 5% on 2012-04-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2012-04-25
• seifip estimated 5% on 2013-04-14
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.