“Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744825 10%” on 2011-08-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 6% on 2011-08-15
• gwern said “still on http://www.state.gov/s/ct/c14151.htm” on 2011-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.