“Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12000 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by faws on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 45% on 2011-08-16
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744800 56.2%” on 2011-08-16
• Ken estimated 25% on 2011-09-10
• faws   judged this prediction right on 2012-01-01.