“Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12250 on 31 Aug 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-08-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-31.

• gwern estimated 3% on 2011-08-16
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750889 10%” on 2011-08-16
• red_goose estimated 5% on 2011-08-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 6% on 2011-08-20
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 20% on 2011-08-21
• gwern said “currently 11559; marking wrong but can be changed if there’s a 700 point movement upwards during the rest of today…” on 2011-08-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-08-31.