“Euro/US Dollar to close ON or ABOVE 1.4000 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2011-08-16
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744922 65%” on 2011-08-16
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 70% on 2011-08-21
• faws   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.