By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.

Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01

  • Alexander Kruel estimated 80% on 2011-08-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2011-08-17
  • gwern estimated 40% and said “2030 is a long time away thoughon 2011-08-17
  • bobpage estimated 15% on 2011-08-17
  • Jach estimated 10% on 2011-08-18
  • roxton estimated 35% on 2011-09-19
  • Grognor estimated 12% and said ““give up” is too strong. pretty sure they’d at least keep it as a backup planon 2011-12-06
  • Tuxedage estimated 5% on 2013-01-03
  • themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-09

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