Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will lose control over his country in 2011.

Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

  • Alexander Kruel estimated 65% on 2011-08-17
  • gwern estimated 40% on 2011-08-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2011-08-17
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 45% on 2011-08-21
  • Jach estimated 45% on 2011-08-24
  • roxton estimated 35% on 2011-09-19
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 30% on 2011-11-05
  • gwern said “still suppressing protesters and in charge, as far as I can tell. marking wrong.on 2011-12-31
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.

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