Barack Obama elected president in 2012

Created by Solvent on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.

• Solvent estimated 70% on 2011-08-18
• norvig   judged this prediction right on 2011-08-18.
• norvig   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-08-18.
• norvig estimated 85% on 2011-08-18
• gwern said “this is a dupe of like a dozen predictions” on 2011-08-18
• OMFGscience estimated 65% on 2011-08-22
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction right on 2012-11-07.