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The kidnappings in Sanderson's “The Alloy of Law” will turn out to be in order to make hemalurgic spikes from the victims.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-08.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2011-08-18
  • JoshuaZ said “Basing prediction after first four chapters which are available in draft form on TOR’s website. ” on 2011-08-18
  • gwern estimated 30% and said “read one or two chapters; would bet against any obvious goal inasmuch as sanderson prides himself on creativity in world building and magical mechanics” on 2011-08-19
  • JoshuaZ said “Chapter 6 is now up. One of the kidnapping victims is not an Allomancer or a Feruchemist which makes her not useful for Hemalurgic purposes. So this hypothesis may be wrong. Possible the Vanishers think don’t know that though. ” on 2011-08-29
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-08.
  • JoshuaZ said “No definite explanation by end of book so marking as wrong. ” on 2011-11-08