Either of my haiku will win the ANN contest (either as top-ranked haiku or as the randomly selected entry)

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2011-08-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-30.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-08-20
• gwern said “make the top 25: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3124” on 2011-08-20
• gwern said “base rate for random selection: ~2/400. Top-ranked? highly unlikely.” on 2011-08-20
• gwern said “contest: http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/contest/2011-08-14/rurouni-kenshin-haiku” on 2011-08-20
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2011-08-27” on 2011-08-27
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-08-30.
• gwern said “and the top winner was a really terrible one too” on 2011-08-30