“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10.

  • gwern estimated 1% on 2011-08-24
  • gwern said “USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Sep 2011 3.8%on 2011-08-24
  • Laurent Bossavit said “tags: international, waron 2011-09-04
  • Robert Kosten estimated 5% on 2011-09-11
  • gimpf estimated 10% on 2011-10-08
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2011-10-10
  • Jayson Virissimo  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-10.

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