“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Sep 2011 3.8%” on 2011-08-24
• Laurent Bossavit said “tags: international, war” on 2011-09-04
• Robert Kosten estimated 5% on 2011-09-11
• gimpf estimated 10% on 2011-10-08
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2011-10-10
• Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-10.