“John Roberts to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court”

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01

  • gwern estimated 5% on 2011-08-24
  • gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=739504 nontradingon 2011-08-24
  • gwern said “like sotomayor, young and healthy. (I sometimes wonder whether party strategists explicitly aim for youth these days)on 2011-08-24
  • gwern said “not to mention that high status (being Chief Justice) seems to come with longevity perks in a lot of fields, so why not the legal field?on 2011-08-24
  • Jack estimated 2% on 2011-08-31
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2016-01-01on 2016-01-01
  • themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-09

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