“Antonin Scalia to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court”

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-02-14.

  • gwern estimated 15% on 2011-08-24
  • JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-08-29
  • Jack estimated 1% on 2011-08-31
  • Jack estimated 2% on 2011-08-31
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01on 2012-01-02
  • JoshuaZ said “Deadline needs pushing back again. on 2013-01-01
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2013-01-01on 2013-01-01
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2014-01-01on 2014-01-14
  • JoshuaZ said “Deadline needs pushing back again. on 2015-01-21
  • rebellionkid estimated 10% on 2015-03-05
  • Adele_L estimated 13% on 2015-04-02
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-02on 2015-04-02
  • gwern said “remarkable how stable the supreme court has been the past few years.on 2015-04-02
  • rebellionkid  judged this prediction right on 2016-02-14.
  • rebellionkid said “Assuming death counts.on 2016-02-14

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