“Will Ron Paul to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012?” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 10% on 2011-08-29
  • gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=751529 15%on 2011-08-29
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2011-08-29
  • Jack estimated 1% on 2011-08-31
  • Jack estimated 5% on 2011-08-31
  • Jach estimated 9% on 2011-08-31
  • bobpage estimated 50% on 2011-09-01
  • bobpage said “There are ~50 of these afaik, and he won 2nd in Nevada in 2008on 2011-09-01
  • gwern said “he seems a lot weaker than in 2008; Intrade is currently trading at 13%, from a peak of ~27% a month agoon 2011-10-13
  • JoshuaZ said “Any objections if I mark this as wrong? He won some delegates but did not get a majority at any caucus or primary. on 2012-09-09
  • JoshuaZ  judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.

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