“Will Ron Paul to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012?” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-08-29
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=751529 15%” on 2011-08-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2011-08-29
• Jack estimated 1% on 2011-08-31
• Jack estimated 5% on 2011-08-31
• Jach estimated 9% on 2011-08-31
• PseudonymousUser estimated 50% on 2011-09-01
• PseudonymousUser said “There are ~50 of these afaik, and he won 2nd in Nevada in 2008” on 2011-09-01
• gwern said “he seems a lot weaker than in 2008; Intrade is currently trading at 13%, from a peak of ~27% a month ago” on 2011-10-13
• JoshuaZ said “Any objections if I mark this as wrong? He won some delegates but did not get a majority at any caucus or primary. ” on 2012-09-09
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.