Obama will approve the Keystone XL pipeline project.

Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by Øx on 2011-12-05.

• Øx estimated 90% on 2011-08-29
• gwern estimated 75% on 2011-08-30
• JoshuaZ said “Sorry, which part of the approval process does this refer to? Googling leaves me confused and looks like there are a variety of different steps. ” on 2011-08-31
• Jack estimated 85% on 2011-08-31
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 70% on 2011-08-31
• gwern said “delayed to after election: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/keystone-oil-pipeline-decision-moved-after-election/ – mark it wrong?” on 2011-11-10
• NathanMcKnight estimated 5% on 2011-11-20
• gwern said “more background: http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2011/11/28/111128taco_talk_mayer” on 2011-11-21
• gwern said “does a delay count as wrong? after all, he has currently not approved it – there is a distinct absence of approval” on 2011-12-01
• Øx   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-05.
• Øx said “The pipeline decision was delayed until at least 2013. This was a prediction that it would be approved by December 1, therefore the prediction was wrong. Sorry for any ambiguity!” on 2011-12-05