Usain Bolt will leave a positive doping test before or during the London Olympics

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-09-03; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.

• Sandra Åhlén estimated 20% on 2011-09-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2011-09-03
• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-09-03
• gwern said “are there rumors I am unaware of that would elevate him from a uniform prior of 1/100s?” on 2011-09-03
• Ken estimated 10% on 2011-09-12
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2012-07-08
• RandomThinker estimated 10% on 2012-07-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2012-07-28
• RandomThinker said “Olympics is over. No positive doping test. But there are always haters. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/olympics/2012/writers/sl_price/08/10/2012-olympics-doping/index.html” on 2012-08-13
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-08-13.