No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by bobpage on 2011-10-02.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2011-09-04
  • JoshuaZ said “tags:politics, weapons, waron 2011-09-04
  • gwern said “Are you sure you should be dropping the []s? on LW, Morendil complained that these sorts of tags are noisy to search for: http://lesswrong.com/lw/6ya/link_get_paid_to_train_your_rationality/4rk3on 2011-09-04
  • gwern estimated 85% and said “lots of potential spark points like india, north korea, china… but I wouldn’t give >5% to any of them, so a 15% total seems reasonableon 2011-09-04
  • fergus estimated 90% on 2011-09-05
  • JoshuaZ said “Good point. Resuming bracket tagging: [politics][weapons][war]on 2011-09-05
  • Alexander Kruel estimated 85% on 2011-09-05
  • Ken estimated 90% on 2011-09-10
  • Robert Kosten estimated 70% on 2011-09-11
  • bobpage said “tag:politics tag:weapons might be a suitable format for searchingon 2011-09-11
  • gimpf estimated 75% on 2011-09-13
  • Gedusa estimated 80% on 2011-09-14
  • Serge estimated 89% on 2011-09-18
  • Konkvistador estimated 84% on 2011-09-23
  • faws estimated 94% on 2011-09-23
  • moozilla estimated 90% on 2011-10-02
  • moozilla  judged this prediction right on 2011-10-02.
  • bobpage  judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-02.
  • BlackHumor estimated 99% and said “Actually should be more nines after that. It was over 99% during the friggin’ Cold War, it can’t have gone UP.on 2011-10-04
  • JoshuaZ said “BlackHumor, there are a lot more potential flash points now then there were then. Also easier for rogue groups to get nukes. And less worry that nuke use will lead to global thermonuclear war so less deterrent. Do these figure into your estimate? on 2011-10-04
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 90% on 2011-10-10
  • Anubhav estimated 99% on 2011-10-10
  • muflax estimated 95% on 2011-10-26
  • kish estimated 1% on 2012-01-10
  • RandomThinker estimated 92% on 2012-05-01
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 87% on 2012-09-29
  • Malgidus estimated 90% on 2013-03-27
  • RandomThinker estimated 80% on 2013-03-28
  • simplicio estimated 80% and said “BlackHumor: whence that number for the Cold War?on 2013-03-28
  • ChristianKl estimated 90% and said “99% for the cold war is overconfident. There are US generals that wanted to use nuke in Viatnam (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/JD17Ae01.html)) . There were also multiple other points with high danger of nuke use. on 2013-03-29
  • rebellionkid estimated 90% on 2014-06-23
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 5% and said “Only 4 years left, unlikely.on 2016-02-17
  • bobpage said “Raahul, you inverted your predictionon 2016-02-17
  • bobpage said “http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/06/nuclear-weapons-70-years-bombing-hiroshima-waron 2016-02-17
  • bobpage estimated 85% on 2016-02-17
  • themusicgod1 estimated 91% on 2016-03-11
  • themusicgod1 estimated 64% on 2016-10-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 92% on 2016-10-09

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