HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

  • ArisKatsaris estimated 45% on 2011-09-04
  • JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2011-09-05
  • JoshuaZ said “Tags: Harry Potter, HMPRon 2011-09-05
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “still think it’s most likely quirrel or snape; equiprobable between lupin and siriuson 2011-09-05
  • Robert Kosten estimated 60% on 2011-09-11
  • Michael Stevens estimated 20% on 2011-09-15
  • Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-10-10
  • Grognor estimated 7% on 2011-12-27
  • faws estimated 30% on 2011-12-28
  • lavalamp estimated 5% on 2012-03-27
  • beo_shaffer estimated 5% on 2012-04-03
  • Anubhav estimated 0% and said “Per Eliezer’s ‘obvious answers are correct’ claim.on 2012-04-03
  • ArisKatsaris changed their prediction from “In 'Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality' the character of Cloak-and-Hat will eventually be revealed to be Sirius Black.” on 2012-04-08
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 25% on 2012-04-20
  • Sarokrae estimated 10% on 2012-04-29
  • jesyspa estimated 1% and said “Don’t see any motive nor foreshadowing; also, only teachers can obliviate without triggering the wards.on 2012-05-13
  • ygert estimated 2% and said “I’d like to think this is true, and it was a pet theory of mine before the latest chapters, but with all the complications, it seems next to impossible.on 2012-12-25
  • William-Quixote estimated 5% on 2013-07-01
  • azax1 estimated 15% on 2013-07-19
  • Osuniev estimated 0% on 2013-08-02
  • nigr estimated 1% on 2013-08-15
  • JoshuaZ said “Should have deadline extended. Recommend a 6th month extension. But note looks extremely unlikely at this point. on 2013-09-05
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2013-09-05
  • ArisKatsaris changed the deadline from “on 2013-09-04on 2013-11-01
  • DEA7TH estimated 3% and said “I don’t think this is his style, also C&H gets around the wardson 2014-02-28
  • Oscar_Cunningham  judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-26.

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction