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HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death.

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-02; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

  • ArisKatsaris estimated 80% on 2011-09-04
  • JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2011-09-05
  • gwern estimated 50% and said “I truly have no idea. voldemort only needs one death for a horcrux, so why 3 planned deaths?” on 2011-09-05
  • Robert Kosten estimated 70% on 2011-09-11
  • Michael Stevens estimated 75% on 2011-09-15
  • Anubhav estimated 90% on 2011-10-10
  • lavalamp estimated 45% on 2012-03-27
  • Alsadius estimated 10% and said “Unlikely. What alternate theory explains anything better? gwern: He didn’t intend Lily or James to die per se – he offered them a chance to live, until they resisted. ” on 2012-04-05
  • Bugmaster estimated 65% on 2012-04-05
  • RobertLumley estimated 60% on 2012-04-05
  • Isaac estimated 85% on 2012-04-05
  • ArisKatsaris changed their prediction from “In “Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality” it will be revealed that Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death.” on 2012-04-07
  • ahartell estimated 50% on 2012-04-09
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 20% and said “IIRC, in canon the attack on the Potters was not intended to create a Horcrux. Harry was an accident.” on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 50% on 2012-04-20
  • ygert estimated 45% on 2013-01-23
  • azax1 estimated 55% on 2013-07-19
  • holycow81 estimated 45% on 2013-07-21
  • nigr estimated 10% on 2013-08-15
  • nigr estimated 10% and said “i don t think so” on 2013-08-21
  • JoshuaZ said “Extend deadline? ” on 2013-09-05
  • Osuniev estimated 45% and said “There is obviously SOMETHING wrong with Quirrel turning into a zombie, and to me the most likely explanation is that his spell backfired because he agreed “Lily’s life in exchange of Harry surviving”. (triggering a Ritual)” on 2013-09-18
  • Osuniev said “In canon Voldemort wanted to make an Horcrux that night, but certainly not Harry himself : Harry’s Death was supposed to fuel the creation of another Horcrux (nagini ?). According to canon!Dumbledore,” on 2013-09-18
  • azax1 estimated 90% and said “This seems more obvious now that I have more story information and have had more time to think about Quirrellmort’s plan.” on 2013-10-17
  • ArisKatsaris changed the deadline from “on 2013-09-04” on 2013-11-02
  • Oscar_Cunningham   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-26.