“Julia Gillard to no longer be Prime Minister of Australia before midnight ET 30 Sep 2011” (excluding death) —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-09-05; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2011-09-05
• gwern said “reading WP, no election announced yet, no obvious scandals. only possibility seems to be https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Gillard_Government#Calls_for_her_to_stand_down which is weak” on 2011-09-05
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 15% on 2011-09-06
• fergus estimated 10% on 2011-09-09
• Ken estimated 0% and said “seems extremely unlikely to happen in the next 17 days, unless I’m missing something” on 2011-09-12
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-30.