GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2011-09-06
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2123” on 2011-09-06
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 85% on 2011-09-07
• Ken estimated 80% on 2011-09-10
• Robert Kosten estimated 95% on 2011-09-11
• gimpf estimated 75% on 2011-09-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 82% on 2011-09-12
• Ken estimated 85% on 2011-09-12
• Gedusa estimated 90% on 2011-09-13
• fergus estimated 90% on 2011-09-15
• Konkvistador estimated 98% and said “Assuming Kim Jong-Il is still alive and hasn’t been replaced by a double. ” on 2011-09-23
• faws estimated 96% on 2011-09-23
• JoshuaZ said “He’s dead. Remains to be seen if transfer happens to his son. ” on 2011-12-19
• gwern said “yep. ‘designated successor’ may become the sticking point; wonder how IARPA will decide.” on 2011-12-19
• JoshuaZ said “Any objections to marking this correct? ” on 2012-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-12-31.