GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

  • gwern estimated 80% on 2011-09-06
  • gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2123on 2011-09-06
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 85% on 2011-09-07
  • Ken estimated 80% on 2011-09-10
  • Robert Kosten estimated 95% on 2011-09-11
  • gimpf estimated 75% on 2011-09-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 82% on 2011-09-12
  • Ken estimated 85% on 2011-09-12
  • Gedusa estimated 90% on 2011-09-13
  • fergus estimated 90% on 2011-09-15
  • Konkvistador estimated 98% and said “Assuming Kim Jong-Il is still alive and hasn’t been replaced by a double. on 2011-09-23
  • faws estimated 96% on 2011-09-23
  • JoshuaZ said “He’s dead. Remains to be seen if transfer happens to his son. on 2011-12-19
  • gwern said “yep. ‘designated successor’ may become the sticking point; wonder how IARPA will decide.on 2011-12-19
  • JoshuaZ said “Any objections to marking this correct? on 2012-12-31
  • gwern  judged this prediction right on 2012-12-31.

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