“King Abdullah to no longer be head of government in Saudi Arabia before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

  • gwern estimated 5% on 2011-09-06
  • gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=747920 2%on 2011-09-06
  • gwern said “dude is 95 years old; he could croak at any second, to say nothing of the other ways he could cease to be head of governmenton 2011-09-06
  • JoshuaZ estimated 92% and said “Life expectancy for a 95 year old predicts around 30% chance of death so one fourth is about 7%. But has best healthcare on planet -1% . But chance of rebellion (small but there around 1%) and chance of assassination of around 1%. Result around 8%. on 2011-09-07
  • JoshuaZ estimated 8% and said “Oops. That should be against (8 percent chance of it happening). on 2011-09-07
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 10% on 2011-09-07
  • Ken estimated 4% on 2011-09-12
  • Ken said “According to Wikipedia, dude is 88 years old.on 2011-09-12
  • JoshuaZ said “Hmm, doesn’t seem to impact things that much. Still is around 7%. for death. on 2011-09-12
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-12-26
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.

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