GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1006: Will Italy restructure or default on its debt by 31 December 2011?
- gwern estimated 5% on 2011-09-07
- gwern made the prediction private on 2011-09-07
- gwern made the prediction public on 2011-12-14
- gwern said “still selling bonds as normal, albeit with some odd skulduggery from EU people which has led to accusations the purchases are just a form of arbitrage.” on 2011-12-30
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-30.
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