GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1006: Will Italy restructure or default on its debt by 31 December 2011?

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.

  • gwern estimated 5% on 2011-09-07
  • gwern made the prediction private on 2011-09-07
  • gwern made the prediction public on 2011-12-14
  • gwern said “still selling bonds as normal, albeit with some odd skulduggery from EU people which has led to accusations the purchases are just a form of arbitrage.on 2011-12-30
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-30.

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