GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1009: By 1 January 2012 will the Iraqi government sign a security agreement that allows US troops to remain in Iraq?

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

  • gwern estimated 50% on 2011-09-07
  • gwern made the prediction public on 2011-12-14
  • gwern said “GJP has suspended it for complex IARPA-related reasons; however, I think I can safely mark this wrong.on 2011-12-31
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.

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