NGE: Neither 3.0 nor 4.0 will be longer than 60 minutes

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 10% on 2011-09-07
  • gwern said “not strictly independent possibilities – if 3.0 is <=60 minutes, 4.0 is very likely to be <=60 minutes tooon 2011-09-07
  • gwern said “3.0 was 106 minutes, so definitely wrongon 2016-01-01
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.

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