Bitcoinica will be hacked before 2013, resulting in at least partial loss of funds (whether or not customers are affected).

Created by bobpage on 2011-09-10; known on 2013-01-01

  • bobpage estimated 50% on 2011-09-10
  • JoshuaZ said “What does this mean? I could see definitional issues impacting this a lot. on 2011-09-10
  • gwern estimated 65% and said “honestly, no bitcoin site has a great security record except maybe silk roadon 2011-09-10
  • bobpage said “For this to be ‘Right’, Bitcoinica would have to permanently lose at least $0.001BC of at least one customer’s money due to an external actor (mistakes by the admins don’t count). “lose” = customer has…on 2011-09-11
  • bobpage said “…no way of getting the money from Bitcoinica. If Bitcoinica stops existing/running, this will count as not-hacked for the duration it doesn’t exist.on 2011-09-11
  • bobpage said ““However, now we have concluded that we lost 43,554 BTC from this incident and we will reimburse our customers for the full amount. For transparency, we would like to disclose all the suspicious transaction ids in this incident:”on 2012-03-02
  • bobpage said “https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=66979.0on 2012-03-02
  • bobpage said ““We are honoring every single withdrawal request, large or small. No account had any balance deductions resulted from this incident.”on 2012-03-02
  • gwern said “way to contradict the title there – so, does it not matter that bitcoinica is eating the loss, per the prediction, or does it matter, per you added comments?on 2012-03-02
  • bobpage said “I remember meaning what the title said, but since I wrote some BS judging details after two other predictions, I’m withdrawing iton 2012-03-02
  • bobpage withdrew the prediction on 2012-03-02
  • bobpage said “er, just your prediction, I meanon 2012-03-02

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