A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021

Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2011-09-11
• gwern said “"I asked my friend when she thinks this will be. She predicted that it will happen within 10 years." http://www.monoxus.com/2011/09/insanely-competitive-or-just-enhanced.html” on 2011-09-11
• Robert Kosten estimated 40% on 2011-09-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2011-09-11
• Ken estimated 30% on 2011-09-12
• gimpf estimated 10% on 2011-09-13
• nshepperd estimated 90% and said “10 years seems a short time to go from current prosthetics to better-than-biology.” on 2011-09-16
• nshepperd estimated 10% and said “Whoops. Hah.” on 2011-09-16
• Ben Doherty estimated 20% on 2011-09-21
• JoshuaZ said “nshepperd, there’s a serious argument already that the prosthetics used by Pistorius are better for some competitions. ” on 2011-09-21
• Metus estimated 90% and said “Too short a time to get the improvement and the change of rules that will allow such a thing to happen.” on 2011-10-08
• Metus estimated 10% and said “Have to figure this thing out.” on 2011-10-08
• jasticE estimated 6% on 2011-10-09
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2011-10-10
• Anubhav estimated 50% on 2011-10-10
• lavalamp estimated 3% on 2011-11-10
• muflax estimated 15% and said “the tech seems plausible, but the rule changes not so much” on 2011-11-11
• RandomThinker estimated 10% and said “Ouch! Not in < 10 years time” on 2012-04-01
• jasticE estimated 77% and said “Does she count?http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2760568/Cut-healthy-leg-I-run-faster-Sporty-teenager-one-limb-amputated-medical-reasons-wants-OTHER-one-removed.html” on 2015-03-03
• PseudonymousUser estimated 25% on 2015-06-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 36% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2019-01-01
• stepan estimated 0% on 2021-07-26
• muflax said “imo danielle bradshaw would count, but she didn’t actually do it. i found one additional athlete who’s already in a wheelchair who considered amputation (george bates), but no actual cases, certainly not for non-disabled athletes (as implied)” on 2021-09-10
• muflax   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-09-10.