Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours

Created by bobpage on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01

  • bobpage estimated 2% on 2011-09-12
  • bobpage said ““inside or within” means the political borders at the time of detonationon 2011-09-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2011-09-12
  • gwern estimated 1% and said “hm. why *thermo*nuclear bomb? H-bombs are very hard to make even when you’ve achieved fission, and for the most part, you don’t really need h-bombs to terrorize or attack neighboring or near countries.on 2011-09-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Good point. Updating per Gwern’s observation. on 2011-09-12
  • Robert Kosten estimated 10% on 2011-09-13
  • faws estimated 0% on 2011-09-23
  • themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-09-30
  • two2thehead estimated 1% on 2016-09-30
  • themusicgod1 estimated 14% on 2016-10-09
  • themusicgod1 estimated 1% and said “oh i hit this one tooon 2016-10-09

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction