The personal use of cannabis will be de jure legalized in at least one U.S state by 2020.

Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by roxton on 2013-01-11.

  • Gedusa estimated 60% on 2011-09-13
  • Gedusa changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01on 2011-09-13
  • gwern said “in what way does california not already count? https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Cannabis_in_California#Medical_marijuanaon 2011-09-14
  • Gedusa said “Only technically available if you have a medical ailment. I should’ve been clearer: personal use = recreational use. I agree it’s de facto legal, but still not de jure in terms of recreational uses.on 2011-09-15
  • u_ estimated 40% on 2011-09-18
  • Robert Kosten estimated 60% on 2011-09-19
  • roxton estimated 60% on 2011-09-19
  • Isaac estimated 100% on 2011-10-01
  • Serge estimated 65% on 2011-10-01
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 55% on 2011-11-15
  • roxton  judged this prediction right on 2013-01-11.
  • Tuxedage said “70on 2013-01-13
  • Tuxedage said “god damnit, I misread this prediction too. I need to start paying close attention to the wording.on 2013-01-13

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