Google + will have under 10 million users by 2013

Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-04-08.

• Gedusa estimated 75% on 2011-09-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% and said “It already has over 10 million users so you are predicting a drop in user total from that now? ” on 2011-09-14
• Gedusa said “Yes. (In the sense of active users). It is experiencing growth but this will be short lived and soon reverse. At least, that’s my prediction. I’ll probably consider it falsified if it has over 20 million 6 months before the deadline.” on 2011-09-14
• JoshuaZ said “tags: [Google][G+][social networks]. See also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2876” on 2011-09-14
• gwern estimated 15% on 2011-09-14
• Robert Kosten estimated 90% on 2011-09-19
• Robert Kosten estimated 10% on 2011-09-19
• Anubhav estimated 20% on 2011-10-10
• Gedusa said “http://tech.slashdot.org/story/11/10/10/1624207/google-loses-60-of-active-users” on 2011-10-10
• Anubhav said “90 mil users now, but apparently most of them are there by accident: http://techland.time.com/2012/01/20/want-a-google-account-now-youre-automatically-signed-up-for-google/” on 2012-02-02
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.
• RandomThinker said “how is this right? should be wrong no?” on 2013-04-08
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction unknown on 2013-04-08.
• JoshuaZ said “How does Anubhav’s link not make it right? ” on 2013-04-08
• RandomThinker said “90 million > 10 million, so this prediction is wrong?” on 2013-04-08
• ygert   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-04-08.
• JoshuaZ said “Oh, apparently I can’t read. Yeah. This is wrong. ” on 2013-04-08