Israel and Egypt at war by 2022

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 36% on 2011-09-16
• JoshuaZ said “tags [Egypt][Israel][Middle East][politics]” on 2011-09-16
• gwern estimated 25% and said “eh. I don’t see why egypt would think it could win…” on 2011-09-16
• Robert Kosten estimated 50% on 2011-09-19
• roxton estimated 50% on 2011-09-19
• faws estimated 30% on 2011-09-23
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 24% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2019-01-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 18% on 2019-01-01
• amadeu estimated 20% on 2019-04-07
• D0TheMath estimated 5% on 2021-12-18
• D0TheMath estimated 1% on 2021-12-18
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% and said “#war” on 2021-12-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2021-12-22
• JoshuaZ said “Oops, misread deadline when updating. ” on 2021-12-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2021-12-22
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-01-01.