SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 1, 2013

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-25.

• JoshuaZ estimated 72% on 2011-09-19
• gwern estimated 65% on 2011-09-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 60% and said “Updating based on additional delays- http://www.universetoday.com/92685/spacex-delays-upcoming-1st-dragon-launch-to-iss/” on 2012-01-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 85% and said “Updating based on scheduled launch for tomorrow- things look like they are going well. ” on 2012-05-18
• RandomThinker estimated 70% on 2012-05-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% and said “Rocket launch aborted. Time for next attempt unclear- http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/19/tech/us-spacex/index.html?hpt=hp_t1” on 2012-05-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% and said “New launch now scheduled for Tuesday” on 2012-05-19
• gimpf estimated 85% on 2012-05-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 90% and said “Initial launch looks good. ” on 2012-05-22
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 95% on 2012-05-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 91% and said “Basic thrusting into relevant orbit and initial testing ok. ” on 2012-05-24
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2012-05-25.
• RandomThinker said “Good prediction Joshua. I would not have known about this news item if I didn’t see it here first.” on 2012-05-25