US Supercommittee to publish >=$1.5t deficit reduction by midnight 23 November 2011

Created by gwern on 2011-09-19; known on 2011-11-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2011-09-19
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=752018 55%” on 2011-09-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 48% on 2011-09-19
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 55% on 2011-09-22
• gimpf estimated 50% on 2011-10-08
• chemotaxis101 estimated 45% on 2011-11-15
• gwern said “intrade is now at 5%; newspapers running pessimistic articles. not looking good!” on 2011-11-20
• NathanMcKnight estimated 10% on 2011-11-20
• gwern said “post-mortem: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/21/us/politics/deficit-deal-fell-apart-after-seeming-agreement.html” on 2011-11-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-11-21
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-22.