The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite will strike a person, residence, or vehicle, where the impact results in at least one human death (that we know about) before 2011-10-25

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-24; known on 2011-10-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-26.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2011-09-24
• fergus estimated 1% on 2011-09-24
• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-09-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2011-09-24
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-26.