The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite will strike a person, residence, or vehicle, where the impact results in at least one human death (that we know about) before 2011-10-25

Created by bobpage on 2011-09-24; known on 2011-10-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-26.

  • bobpage estimated 0% on 2011-09-24
  • fergus estimated 1% on 2011-09-24
  • gwern estimated 1% on 2011-09-24
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2011-09-24
  • JoshuaZ  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-26.

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