Google Wave will change the way we E-Mail/IM/Communicate

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-01.

  • TwitterPredicts estimated 75% on 2009-06-01
  • Lina estimated 95% on 2009-06-01
  • Matt estimated 95% and said “Without quantifying “change”, this one’s pretty easy.on 2009-06-02
  • ChristianKl said “How will it be measured?on 2009-10-15
  • anonym  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym estimated 80% on 2009-10-17
  • freyley said “This should be “change, not just add to,” because that’s the way it’s talked about on the web. If it were, I would bet against it.on 2009-10-25
  • NineteenHalves estimated 77% on 2009-12-03
  • Matt said “I think we’d have to judge Wave a ffffssst so far? Does anyone feel their communication is measurably changed?on 2010-06-02
  • gwern said “google has abandoned wave; a resounding vote of no-confidence. marking wrong.on 2010-09-01
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2010-09-01.
  • Matt said “… and my little monkey brain is looking for definitions of “change” that justify my previous confidence. There are many.on 2010-09-01
  • gwern said “Are you being humorous (‘oh look at my hindsight and other biases go!’) or do you genuinely think the judgment is wrong?on 2010-09-02
  • Matt said “The original prediction is very open. My first comment shows my interpretation when I predicted… but I should leave judgment to someone disinterested.on 2010-09-02

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