Google Wave will change the way we E-Mail/IM/Communicate

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-01.

• TwitterPredicts estimated 75% on 2009-06-01
• Lina estimated 95% on 2009-06-01
• Matt estimated 95% and said “Without quantifying “change”, this one’s pretty easy.” on 2009-06-02
• ChristianKl said “How will it be measured?” on 2009-10-15
• anonym   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
• anonym   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
• anonym estimated 80% on 2009-10-17
• freyley said “This should be “change, not just add to,” because that’s the way it’s talked about on the web. If it were, I would bet against it.” on 2009-10-25
• NineteenHalves estimated 77% on 2009-12-03
• Matt said “I think we’d have to judge Wave a ffffssst so far? Does anyone feel their communication is measurably changed?” on 2010-06-02
• gwern said “google has abandoned wave; a resounding vote of no-confidence. marking wrong.” on 2010-09-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-09-01.
• Matt said “… and my little monkey brain is looking for definitions of “change” that justify my previous confidence. There are many.” on 2010-09-01
• gwern said “Are you being humorous (‘oh look at my hindsight and other biases go!’) or do you genuinely think the judgment is wrong?” on 2010-09-02
• Matt said “The original prediction is very open. My first comment shows my interpretation when I predicted… but I should leave judgment to someone disinterested.” on 2010-09-02