“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.”
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
- PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2011-10-07
- PseudonymousUser said “from http://bbs.chinadaily.com.cn/viewthread.php?tid=709814” on 2011-10-07
- PseudonymousUser said “the poster’s conjecture: “The reason is that too many foreign men are marrying Chinese women and that there will be 10-20 million Chinese men who cannot find Chinese wives.”” on 2011-10-07
- gwern estimated 10% and said “yes, I’m sure they will happily sabotage their economy to deal with a minor leak of women… (not 1% because there is a serious political streak of xenophobia in China)” on 2011-10-07
- mat33 estimated 15% and said “I don’t really know what would be China in a few years. But this kind of folly looks just remotely plausible, as it’s consistent whith the China traditions and red&brown worldview.” on 2011-10-08
- Kaj_Sotala judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-08.
- Kaj_Sotala judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-08.
- Kaj_Sotala said “(Sorry about that, misunderstood what the buttons meant.)” on 2011-10-08
- Kaj_Sotala estimated 2% on 2011-10-08
- Sniffnoy estimated 1% and said “I’m using a narrow notion of “special cases” here. I’d go down to 95% using a broader notion.” on 2011-10-08
- Robert Kosten estimated 15% on 2011-10-09
- JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “tags: [China][demographics][politics]” on 2011-10-09
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 99% on 2011-10-10
- Anubhav estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
- BrandonReinhart estimated 1% on 2011-10-12
- PseudonymousUser said “Jayson_Virissimo, did you mean 99% against?” on 2011-10-12
- Serge estimated 12% and said “I don’t think so” on 2011-10-16
- JFE estimated 1% on 2011-11-01
- thaprophet estimated 0% on 2011-11-04
- faws estimated 1% on 2011-11-06
- Artis estimated 25% on 2011-11-07
- seifip estimated 3% on 2013-04-14
- Tuxedage estimated 0% on 2013-04-14
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-02-21
- themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-09
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-10-09
- pranomostro estimated 5% on 2019-01-01
- JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2019-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 2% on 2019-01-01
- galen estimated 1% on 2019-12-29
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2019-12-29
- Pablo estimated 0% on 2019-12-31
- Bruno Parga judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.