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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end)

Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.

  • Daniel Mehkeri estimated 100% on 2011-10-10
  • Daniel Mehkeri said “Mainly curious to see who will put anything other than 100%.” on 2011-10-10
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 100% on 2011-10-11
  • JoshuaZ estimated 100% on 2011-10-11
  • CryingWolf estimated 100% on 2011-10-11
  • Sniffnoy estimated 100% on 2011-10-11
  • gwern estimated 100% and said “there must be a dozen of these Mayan predictions now… no one ever checks” on 2011-10-11
  • Robert Kosten estimated 99% and said “I prefer rounding away from 0 and 100, as there is basically no chance of anything physical ever beeing exactly those two ;-)” on 2011-10-11
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 100% and said “100% on PB usually means > 99.5%. I am much closer to 100% here, though.” on 2011-10-11
  • Daniel Mehkeri said “Not that I don’t believe Robert Kosten, but I was trying to look up his predictions. The info is not easily available. Nor did I find anywhere to discuss this site. Nor even an “about us” page! Guess I’ll complain here.” on 2011-10-14
  • Anubhav estimated 100% on 2011-10-14
  • PseudonymousUser said “Daniel, you can talk about this site in the #lesswrong channel on freenode, try http://webchat.freenode.net/-And, look up Robert’s predictions? Huh? You mean something other than http://predictionbook.com/users/RobertKosten ?” on 2011-10-14
  • PseudonymousUser said “sorry about the messed up link, that’s http://webchat.freenode.net/” on 2011-10-14
  • velocirhymer estimated 100% on 2011-10-19
  • fortified estimated 90% on 2011-10-19
  • Katie Hartman estimated 100% on 2011-10-20
  • Katie Hartman estimated 100% on 2011-10-20
  • TrE estimated 100% on 2011-10-20
  • Jach estimated 100% on 2011-10-23
  • Gedusa estimated 100% on 2011-10-26
  • muflax estimated 99% and said “not that being right would be any good” on 2011-10-26
  • Codyz estimated 100% on 2011-10-27
  • Metus estimated 100% on 2011-10-28
  • rebellionkid estimated 100% and said “100-epsilon of course. I’m not exactly sure what epsilon is here, but 0 is right practically speaking.” on 2011-10-29
  • Nic_Smith estimated 100% and said “Interestingly, this prediction is slightly different than “the world will end on 12-21” — it would, for example, be false if Earth somehow skipped a day.” on 2011-10-30
  • Sarokrae estimated 100% and said “rounded from 100-10^-1000” on 2011-10-31
  • theghostmaker   judged this prediction right on 2011-10-31.
  • TheScholar   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-31.
  • antsan estimated 100% on 2011-11-01
  • Arets Paeglis estimated 100% and said “Rounded down from (100 + (ε = 1/1↑↑↑10)).” on 2011-11-01
  • Giuseppe estimated 100% on 2011-11-02
  • ScaldingHotSoup   judged this prediction right on 2011-11-02.
  • ScaldingHotSoup   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-02.
  • ScaldingHotSoup estimated 100% on 2011-11-02
  • JoshuaZ said “Sarokrae, while that’s amusing, the probability of planetary destruction simply based on say an asteroid is higher than that. ” on 2011-11-02
  • JoshuaZ said “Sarokrae, while that’s amusing, the probability of planetary destruction simply based on say an asteroid is higher than that. ” on 2011-11-02
  • Arets Paeglis said “Do we know of any asteroids that are to any degree likely to hit Earth until the given date? It’s not rhetoric.” on 2011-11-02
  • kurthr estimated 100% and said “Unfortunately the statement is a bit unclear since clock time zone etc are unstated… really the prediction is about an instant in time not an entire day (as I understand it).” on 2011-11-02
  • Matt estimated 99% and said “I’d love PBook’s confidence to move to odds rather than . My confidence is much higher than 99, and much much much lower than 100%.” on 2011-11-02
  • metanat estimated 100% on 2011-11-04
  • beriukay estimated 100% and said “100 – epsilon, to be accurate.” on 2011-11-04
  • thaprophet estimated 100% and said “nuff said” on 2011-11-04
  • vaab   judged this prediction right on 2011-11-06.
  • gwern   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-06.
  • Laurent Bossavit estimated 100% on 2011-11-06
  • Artis estimated 100% on 2011-11-07
  • lavalamp estimated 100% on 2011-11-10
  • kilobug estimated 100% on 2011-11-18
  • fergus estimated 100% on 2011-12-31
  • faws estimated 100% on 2012-01-01
  • Mqrius estimated 100% and said “Timezone doesn’t matter. My prediction remains the same no matter what timezone is specified.” on 2012-01-01
  • Larklight estimated 100% on 2012-01-03
  • ahartell estimated 100% on 2012-01-11
  • saturn estimated 100% on 2012-03-28
  • ashrewdmint estimated 100% on 2012-12-13
  • ygert estimated 100% on 2012-12-16
  • muflax   judged this prediction right on 2012-12-22.
  • kuudes said “Testing PB for a bug” on 2016-12-21
  • kuudes   judged this prediction unknown on 2016-12-21.
  • kuudes   judged this prediction right on 2016-12-21.