Obama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016.

Created by lionflower on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-09-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-09-09.

• lionflower estimated 80% on 2011-11-02
• PseudonymousUser said “So is “This secures her presidency in 2016.” part of the prediction or not? You’d have to move the prediction deadline if so. Also, look up conjunction fallacy :-)” on 2011-11-02
• roxton estimated 7% on 2011-11-02
• gwern estimated 5% and said “obama re-elected 2012 (.5) AND peace deal (.1) AND hillary elected 2016 (<.5) = <0.5 * 0.5 * 0.1 or <2.5%… what a pity it’s so hard to set up bets online” on 2011-11-02
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2011-11-02
• Codyz estimated 5% on 2011-11-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2011-11-04
• Isaac said “Would be a remarkable set of circumstances.” on 2011-11-10
• Anubhav estimated 1% on 2011-11-21
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2011-11-21
• Nic_Smith estimated 1% on 2011-11-22
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 1% on 2012-01-01
• beo_shaffer estimated 3% on 2012-09-10
• rebellionkid estimated 1% on 2014-09-08
• Anubhav   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-09-09.