Robin Hanson will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2011-11-10
• gwern estimated 15% and said “busy dude, and not interested in applying things himself – for all that he complains about society and government and corporation not using his ideas…” on 2011-11-10
• muflax estimated 10% on 2011-11-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2011-11-10
• PseudonymousUser estimated 15% on 2011-11-10
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 30% and said “http://www.overcomingbias.com/2011/12/heads-in-the-sand.html” on 2012-01-02
• Grognor estimated 13% on 2012-03-22
• chemotaxis101 estimated 10% on 2012-07-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.