Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2011-11-10
• gwern estimated 15% and said “predicting is hard; let’s go fanficcing” on 2011-11-10
• muflax estimated 10% on 2011-11-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2011-11-10
• PseudonymousUser estimated 15% on 2011-11-10
• JoshuaZ said “Predicting seems a lot easier to me than fanfic writing. ” on 2011-11-10
• Metus estimated 10% and said “One is measurable, the other is not.” on 2011-11-11
• Anubhav estimated 5% on 2011-11-11
• shokwave estimated 5% and said “comments on lesswrong indicate she is opposed to the idea, replies are only entrenching her opposition” on 2011-11-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2012-01-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2012-01-14
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 3% on 2012-04-26
• Emanuel Rylke   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.