PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

cousin_it will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2011-11-10
  • gwern estimated 15% on 2011-11-10
  • muflax estimated 10% on 2011-11-10
  • JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2011-11-10
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.