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HPMOR: By the end of the story, it will turn out that the troll actually killed Hermione.

Created by Mathias Zaman on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by Mathias Zaman on 2015-03-11.

  • Mathias Zaman estimated 90% on 2014-11-19
  • azax1 estimated 91% and said “I get to lord it over everyone else just a little bit more than you do, now, if we’re right. :Pon 2014-11-20
  • Mati estimated 38% and said “Why do you think Hermione’s body disappeared?on 2014-11-21
  • Mati said “I’d say 9.49% that we don’t know if the troll killed her (ex.: she’s cryonically preserved)on 2014-11-21
  • Mati said “36% that she is not dead, 10% she dies but not because of the troll, 22% she died because of the troll and she didn’t continue existing without her bodyon 2014-11-21
  • Mati said “16% she ‘died’ because of the troll and she continues living without her body, 1% I forgot an option, 0.01% she never existed in the first place.on 2014-11-21
  • Mati said “3.5% that the answer won’t be fully determined (ex.: the tank in which she was cryonically preserved is destroyed; or the story doesn’t end)on 2014-11-21
  • Mati said “3% that a copy of her will still exist, but not the original (ex.: a digital copy; or some form of ghosts)on 2014-11-21
  • Mati said ““100%” that we should allow longer comments :/on 2014-11-21
  • azax1 said “Given metadata about EY and death, among other things, I am very confidenton 2014-12-18
  • quicklystarfish estimated 92% on 2015-02-16
  • ThetaAurigae estimated 40% and said “From a literary standpoint? Dying for real is a stronger move.From a ideological perspective? Making it possible to save her is more in line with what I’d expect.on 2015-02-16
  • JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2015-02-16
  • Mathias Zaman said “Giving the current events in the story, I’m going to call this prediction correct.on 2015-03-11
  • Mathias Zaman   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-11.