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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term

Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.

  • MBlume estimated 80% on 2009-10-14
  • MBlume said “I intentionally made this prediction prior to checking the intrade market.” on 2009-10-14
  • InTrade estimated 63% on 2009-10-14
  • Jack estimated 79% on 2009-10-14
  • TechnoLogos   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
  • TechnoLogos   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
  • TechnoLogos estimated 85% on 2009-10-14
  • bogdanb estimated 75% on 2009-10-14
  • Sofa estimated 90% on 2009-10-14
  • Cyan estimated 70% on 2009-10-14
  • Emile   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
  • Emile   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
  • Emile estimated 60% on 2009-10-14
  • JRMayne   judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-14.
  • JRMayne   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
  • JRMayne   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
  • JRMayne estimated 45% on 2009-10-14
  • VanVeen   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
  • InTrade   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
  • Matt estimated 63% and said “I’ll track InTrade on this one.” on 2009-10-14
  • kess3r   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
  • Matt   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-15.
  • anonym   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-15.
  • Matt   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-15.
  • othercriteria estimated 60% on 2009-10-15
  • ChristianKl estimated 55% on 2009-10-15
  • JFE estimated 72% on 2009-10-15
  • jes5199 estimated 90% on 2009-10-15
  • JamesMiller estimated 65% on 2009-10-15
  • cdpredict   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-16.
  • Jack   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-16.
  • mycroft65536 estimated 65% on 2009-10-17
  • PotatoDumplings estimated 65% on 2009-10-17
  • viktor estimated 80% on 2009-10-17
  • viktor   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
  • MBlume   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
  • Larks estimated 45% on 2009-10-17
  • Robin Z. estimated 90% and said “Circumstances would have to change radically to make the election of Obama in 2012 unlikely.” on 2009-10-17
  • NieAlane estimated 70% on 2009-10-18
  • anonym estimated 92% on 2009-10-18
  • mortehu estimated 95% on 2009-10-19
  • mlinksva estimated 53% and said “.647*.820 last trades for 2012.DEM.NOM.OBAMA and PRESIDENT.DEM.2012 on Intade.” on 2009-10-19
  • mlinksva estimated 53% and said “.647*.820 last trades for PRESIDENT.DEM.2012 and 2012.DEM.NOM.OBAMA on Intade.” on 2009-10-19
  • flovv   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-19.
  • Larks   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-19.
  • Daniel Reeves   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-19.
  • Matt   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-20.
  • Matt estimated 53% and said “mlinksva is right – I tracked the wrong Intrade contract” on 2009-10-20
  • taiyo estimated 66% on 2009-10-20
  • archgoon   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-20.
  • freyley   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-21.
  • freyley estimated 77% on 2009-10-21
  • faws estimated 78% on 2009-10-22
  • refragable estimated 70% on 2009-10-28
  • im estimated 65% and said “I am deliberately not collecting any more information since having read the prediction.” on 2009-10-29
  • ssowle estimated 70% on 2009-10-31
  • atrus estimated 90% on 2009-11-02
  • nirav72   judged this prediction right on 2009-11-02.
  • bogdanb   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-11-14.
  • bogdanb estimated 90% on 2009-11-14
  • NineteenHalves estimated 67% on 2009-12-03
  • gwern estimated 80% and said “Presidents usually serve second terms; Reagan, Clinton, Bush II… So far I see no evidence Obama will go the way of Carter or Bush I.” on 2010-07-29
  • gwern said “see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1682” on 2010-08-20
  • ilikepineapples estimated 80% on 2010-08-20
  • gsrk1984 estimated 70% on 2010-09-21
  • seanwookie   judged this prediction right on 2010-09-22.
  • gwern   judged this prediction unknown on 2010-09-24.
  • Jennifer estimated 65% and said “Roughly in line with historic average of intrade numbers.” on 2010-09-29
  • gimpf estimated 75% on 2010-12-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 80% on 2011-01-01
  • Saliency estimated 90% on 2011-06-09
  • kallman estimated 85% and said “No god but a man; but a damn sight better than his predecessor.” on 2011-06-22
  • Matt estimated 51% and said “Updating on InTrade’s estimate.” on 2011-08-18
  • Ken estimated 80% on 2011-09-12
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 48% on 2011-10-10
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 52% on 2011-10-13
  • montsamu estimated 20% on 2011-11-02
  • montsamu estimated 50% on 2011-11-02
  • muflax estimated 80% on 2011-11-02
  • Isaac estimated 75% on 2011-11-02
  • JoshuaZ estimated 60% and said “Updating. ” on 2011-11-02
  • Sniffnoy estimated 63% on 2011-11-02
  • Gedusa estimated 60% on 2011-11-02
  • ka estimated 50% on 2011-11-02
  • lavalamp estimated 65% on 2011-11-10
  • procran estimated 65% on 2011-11-12
  • Anubhav estimated 80% on 2011-11-17
  • Grognor estimated 56% on 2011-12-06
  • gwern said “important background reading: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html” on 2011-12-31
  • velocirhymer estimated 65% on 2012-01-01
  • Larklight estimated 50% on 2012-01-03
  • nationaleloquence estimated 30% on 2012-01-06
  • nationaleloquence   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-06.
  • Anubhav   judged this prediction unknown on 2012-01-06.
  • modulus estimated 55% on 2012-01-09
  • BigBlue estimated 90% on 2012-01-11
  • smijer estimated 80% on 2012-01-11
  • baslisks estimated 75% and said “I don’t know people seem kind of angry with him but he does have the fact he got elected once to go on.” on 2012-01-20
  • Anubhav said “deadline needs to be fixed… ” on 2012-01-20
  • MBlume changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-20” on 2012-01-20
  • Jach estimated 85% on 2012-02-29
  • ahartell estimated 75% on 2012-04-09
  • RandomThinker estimated 70% on 2012-05-01
  • papermachine estimated 80% on 2012-05-03
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 55% on 2012-06-02
  • chimpsky estimated 55% on 2012-06-09
  • dhoe estimated 65% on 2012-08-12
  • beo_shaffer estimated 70% on 2012-08-12
  • Lyaer estimated 75% on 2012-08-21
  • saturn estimated 70% on 2012-08-25
  • bsm estimated 75% on 2012-09-03
  • William-Quixote estimated 76% on 2012-09-08
  • jbeshir estimated 58% on 2012-09-10
  • jakewalker estimated 85% on 2012-09-13
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 70% and said “Why is the deadline before the election?” on 2012-09-17
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 70% on 2012-09-17
  • Laurent Bossavit estimated 80% on 2012-09-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 75% and said “Updating. ” on 2012-09-20
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 75% on 2012-09-25
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 78% on 2012-09-26
  • Pablo estimated 78% and said “Intrade: 78.3%.” on 2012-09-29
  • MBlume changed the deadline from “on 2012-10-06” on 2012-10-01
  • gwern said “fixed date” on 2012-10-01
  • smijer estimated 90% on 2012-10-20
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 70% on 2012-10-21
  • iconreforged estimated 75% on 2012-10-24
  • drethelin estimated 75% on 2012-10-29
  • davidiach estimated 65% on 2012-10-30
  • meisnewbie estimated 70% and said “Faith in Nate Silver.” on 2012-10-31
  • beo_shaffer estimated 73% and said “http://www.cracked.com/article_20139_6-bizarre-factors-that-predict-every-presidential-election.htmlUpdating on halloween masks and kid election.” on 2012-11-02
  • MBlume changed the deadline from “on 2012-11-03” on 2012-11-04
  • Sarokrae estimated 50% on 2012-11-05
  • beo_shaffer estimated 78% on 2012-11-05
  • nshepperd estimated 76% and said “Nate Silver knows better than me.” on 2012-11-06
  • beo_shaffer estimated 90% on 2012-11-06
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 92% on 2012-11-07
  • smijer   judged this prediction right on 2012-11-07.