Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term

Created by MBlume 9 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by bogdanb 8 months ago.

  • MBlume estimated 80% 9 months ago
  • MBlume said “I intentionally made this prediction prior to checking the intrade market.” 9 months ago
  • InTrade estimated 63% 9 months ago
  • Jack estimated 79% 9 months ago
  • TechnoLogos judged this prediction right 9 months ago.
  • TechnoLogos judged this prediction unknown 9 months ago.
  • TechnoLogos estimated 85% 9 months ago
  • bogdanb estimated 75% 9 months ago
  • Sofa estimated 90% 9 months ago
  • Cyan estimated 70% 9 months ago
  • Emile judged this prediction right 9 months ago.
  • Emile judged this prediction unknown 9 months ago.
  • Emile estimated 60% 9 months ago
  • JRMayne judged this prediction wrong 9 months ago.
  • JRMayne judged this prediction right 9 months ago.
  • JRMayne judged this prediction unknown 9 months ago.
  • JRMayne estimated 55% against 9 months ago
  • VanVeen judged this prediction right 9 months ago.
  • InTrade judged this prediction unknown 9 months ago.
  • Matt estimated 63% and said “I’ll track InTrade on this one.” 9 months ago
  • kess3r judged this prediction right 9 months ago.
  • Matt judged this prediction unknown 9 months ago.
  • anonym judged this prediction right 9 months ago.
  • Matt judged this prediction unknown 9 months ago.
  • othercriteria estimated 60% 9 months ago
  • ChristianKl estimated 55% 9 months ago
  • JFE estimated 72% 9 months ago
  • jes5199 estimated 90% 9 months ago
  • JamesMiller estimated 65% 9 months ago
  • cdpredict judged this prediction right 9 months ago.
  • Jack judged this prediction unknown 9 months ago.
  • mycroft65536 estimated 65% 9 months ago
  • PotatoDumplings estimated 65% 9 months ago
  • viktor estimated 80% 9 months ago
  • viktor judged this prediction right 9 months ago.
  • MBlume judged this prediction unknown 9 months ago.
  • Larks estimated 55% against 9 months ago
  • Robin Z. estimated 90% and said “Circumstances would have to change radically to make the election of Obama in 2012 unlikely.” 9 months ago
  • NieAlane estimated 70% 9 months ago
  • anonym estimated 92% 9 months ago
  • mortehu estimated 95% 9 months ago
  • mlinksva estimated 53% and said “.647*.820 last trades for 2012.DEM.NOM.OBAMA and PRESIDENT.DEM.2012 on Intade.” 9 months ago
  • mlinksva estimated 53% and said “.647*.820 last trades for PRESIDENT.DEM.2012 and 2012.DEM.NOM.OBAMA on Intade.” 9 months ago
  • flovv judged this prediction right 9 months ago.
  • Larks judged this prediction unknown 9 months ago.
  • dreeves judged this prediction right 9 months ago.
  • Matt judged this prediction unknown 9 months ago.
  • Matt estimated 53% and said “mlinksva is right – I tracked the wrong Intrade contract” 9 months ago
  • taiyo estimated 66% 9 months ago
  • archgoon judged this prediction right 9 months ago.
  • freyley judged this prediction unknown 9 months ago.
  • freyley estimated 77% 9 months ago
  • faws estimated 78% 9 months ago
  • refragable estimated 70% 9 months ago
  • im estimated 65% and said “I am deliberately not collecting any more information since having read the prediction.” 9 months ago
  • ssowle estimated 70% 9 months ago
  • atrus estimated 90% 8 months ago
  • nirav72 judged this prediction right 8 months ago.
  • bogdanb judged this prediction unknown 8 months ago.
  • bogdanb estimated 90% 8 months ago
  • NineteenHalves estimated 67% 7 months ago
  • gwern estimated 80% and said “Presidents usually serve second terms; Reagan, Clinton, Bush II… So far I see no evidence Obama will go the way of Carter or Bush I.” about 6 hours ago

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