A federal government run health insurance plan will not be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Spring on 2016-02-10.

  • InTrade estimated 75% on 2009-10-14
  • InTrade estimated 83% on 2009-10-14
  • Larks estimated 90% on 2009-10-17
  • InTrade estimated 79% on 2009-10-20
  • othercriteria estimated 80% and said “Why not state the prediction in the affirmative?on 2009-10-29
  • gwern estimated 50% and said “Unclear what this is; a public health option? That didn’t get passed, and the health reform legislation was passed in 2010, not 2009. Marking wrong.on 2010-07-29
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2010-07-29.
  • Spring  judged this prediction right on 2016-02-10.
  • Spring said “Note the negative in the wording – the failure to pass anything in 2009 means this is correct.on 2016-02-10

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction