Bayesian Induction will be proven to be merely a special case of analogical reasoning by 2014

Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-08.

  • mjgeddes estimated 50% on 2009-10-14
  • Jack estimated 10% on 2009-10-14
  • othercriteria estimated 5% on 2009-10-15
  • anonym  judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym estimated 5% on 2009-10-17
  • gwern said “I don’t know how one could even judge this.on 2010-09-28
  • gwern said “haven’t heard anything vaguely similar, so I guess I’ll just mark it wrong…on 2014-01-08
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-08.

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction