Notch (or Mojang) announces open source MineCraft client has been released by 2013.

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-03.

• Nic_Smith estimated 1% on 2011-11-22
• Nic_Smith said “Notes: Any platform official client. Does not have to include all resources required to play game or use all features (eg library, art, music). Public domain counts as Open Source.” on 2011-11-22
• Nic_Smith said “‘Once sales start dying and a minimum time has passed, I will release the game source code as some kind of open source.’ — http://www.minecraft.net/game” on 2011-11-22
• Anubhav estimated 1% and said “Too early. ” on 2011-11-22
• gwern estimated 5% and said “this year or next? he could start burning out – he’s been working heavily on it since 2009, or under three years” on 2011-11-22
• gwern said “notch no longer lead dev: http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/38917/Persson_Hands_Minecraft_Lead_To_Jens_Bergensten_Confident_About_Move.php http://notch.tumblr.com/post/13633493969/och-med-dom-orden-sa-passar-jag-micken” on 2011-12-02
• learnmethis estimated 1% and said “would only be precipitated by the entrance of a new contender into the niche or serious business problems.” on 2012-09-26
• Nic_Smith   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-03.