The sun will not become a nova during this year.
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-14.
- bogdanb estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
- Laurent Bossavit estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
- Jack estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
- Jack said “I wonder if we should generally avoid predictions which won’t be judged wrong even if they are wrong. Falsifiability is good.” on 2009-10-14
- Arenamontanus estimated 99% on 2009-10-14
- JamesMiller estimated 100% on 2009-10-15
- othercriteria estimated 100% on 2009-10-16
- mycroft65536 estimated 99% on 2009-10-17
- anonym judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
- anonym judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
- anonym estimated 99% on 2009-10-17
- PotatoDumplings judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
- anonym judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
- VoiceOfAuthority estimated 100% on 2009-10-20
- Houshalter estimated 99% on 2010-06-13
- gwern estimated 100% and said “Jack: we could know in advance about the sun going nova. It may not be truly certain until it does go nova, but nothing is truly certain…” on 2010-07-29
- Jennifer estimated 100% on 2010-09-29
- divide estimated 100% on 2010-09-29
- twanvl estimated 100% on 2010-09-30
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2010-10-14.