The sun will not become a nova during this year.

Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-14.

  • bogdanb estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
  • Laurent Bossavit estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
  • Jack estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
  • Jack said “I wonder if we should generally avoid predictions which won’t be judged wrong even if they are wrong. Falsifiability is good.on 2009-10-14
  • Arenamontanus estimated 99% on 2009-10-14
  • JamesMiller estimated 100% on 2009-10-15
  • othercriteria estimated 100% on 2009-10-16
  • mycroft65536 estimated 99% on 2009-10-17
  • anonym  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym estimated 99% on 2009-10-17
  • PotatoDumplings  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
  • VoiceOfAuthority estimated 100% on 2009-10-20
  • Houshalter estimated 99% on 2010-06-13
  • gwern estimated 100% and said “Jack: we could know in advance about the sun going nova. It may not be truly certain until it does go nova, but nothing is truly certain…on 2010-07-29
  • Jennifer estimated 100% on 2010-09-29
  • divide estimated 100% on 2010-09-29
  • twanvl estimated 100% on 2010-09-30
  • gwern  judged this prediction right on 2010-10-14.

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