The sun will not become a nova during this year.
Created by bogdanb 11 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
- bogdanb estimated 100% 11 months ago
- Morendil estimated 100% 11 months ago
- Jack estimated 100% 11 months ago
- Jack said “I wonder if we should generally avoid predictions which won’t be judged wrong even if they are wrong. Falsifiability is good.” 11 months ago
- Arenamontanus estimated 99% 11 months ago
- JamesMiller estimated 100% 10 months ago
- othercriteria estimated 100% 10 months ago
- mycroft65536 estimated 99% 10 months ago
- anonym judged this prediction right 10 months ago.
- anonym judged this prediction unknown 10 months ago.
- anonym estimated 99% 10 months ago
- PotatoDumplings judged this prediction right 10 months ago.
- anonym judged this prediction unknown 10 months ago.
- VoiceOfAuthority estimated 100% 10 months ago
- Houshalter estimated 99% 2 months ago
- gwern estimated 100% and said “Jack: we could know in advance about the sun going nova. It may not be truly certain until it does go nova, but nothing is truly certain…” about 1 month ago
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