General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year.

Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.

  • bogdanb estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
  • rwallace estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
  • Laurent Bossavit estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
  • Drahflow estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
  • Thom Blake  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
  • JamesMiller said “99.999%on 2009-10-14
  • Jack  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
  • Jack estimated 100% and said “James, does that mean you think it is more likely that this prediction is wrong than that you will win the lottery (if you play)?on 2009-10-14
  • Arenamontanus estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
  • Jonii  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-15.
  • Matt  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-15.
  • jes5199 estimated 100% on 2009-10-15
  • othercriteria  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-15.
  • othercriteria  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-15.
  • othercriteria estimated 100% on 2009-10-15
  • im said “Why can’t I enter a probability strictly between 99 and 100? 100% probability is a dangerous thing.on 2009-10-15
  • AnonymousCoward  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-15.
  • anonym  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym estimated 100% on 2009-10-17
  • comboy estimated 100% and said “99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999on 2009-10-17
  • jasticE estimated 100% on 2009-10-17
  • Larks estimated 99% on 2009-10-17
  • TheScholar estimated 100% on 2009-10-17
  • Robin Z. said “The likelihood associated with this claim cannot be accurately described with only two significant figures. Odds against this are much, much less than 1%.on 2009-10-17
  • trismet estimated 100% on 2009-10-17
  • btud  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
  • btud said “99.99999….(many nines)….999on 2009-10-17
  • Larks  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-18.
  • Jack said “Robin, 99.99… rounds to 100. Just like 18.99 rounds to 19. Extremely high or low certainty doesn’t inherently require more exactness.on 2009-10-19
  • VoiceOfAuthority  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-19.
  • Larks  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-19.
  • taiyo estimated 100% on 2009-10-20
  • Chance estimated 100% and said “100-10^-20on 2009-10-20
  • archgoon estimated 100% on 2009-10-20
  • freyley estimated 100% on 2009-10-21
  • Martin Chase estimated 100% on 2009-10-22
  • faws estimated 100% on 2009-10-22
  • Tobias estimated 100% on 2009-10-26
  • im estimated 100% and said “100% is just an approximation of “closer to 100% than 99%”.on 2009-10-29
  • ssowle estimated 100% on 2009-10-31
  • wasistdas  judged this prediction right on 2009-11-10.
  • Laurent Bossavit  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-11-12.
  • elefevre estimated 100% on 2009-11-12
  • gwern estimated 100% and said “echo others; why not let us input arbitrary reals?on 2010-07-29
  • Jennifer estimated 100% on 2010-09-29
  • jasticE  judged this prediction right on 2010-10-14.

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