Reddit: birdie / cheese are in a relationship in 6 months (and we get an update).

Created by muflax on 2011-12-01; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-06-01.

• muflax estimated 30% on 2011-12-01
• muflax said “reference: http://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/mvd9d/i_have_returned_from_dinner_and_i_bear_good_news/c3457zu, dunno what the base rate is, so that’s a pretty blind guess” on 2011-12-01
• gwern estimated 25% and said “chance encounters on the internet are no basis for a system of government. supreme romantic power derives from hormones and compatibility, not some farcical Reddit self-posts!” on 2011-12-01
• muflax estimated 2% and said “according to http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/n8luc/iama_person_who_achieved_mild_internet_fame_along/ they didn’t end up dating, but are friends, so black swans might just happen” on 2011-12-19
• muflax said “nope: http://www.reddit.com/r/mildlyinteresting/comments/tpxgh/someone_recognized_me_from_reddit_yesterday_while/” on 2012-06-01
• muflax   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-06-01.