The new Silk Road URL will be revealed to be a scam/phishing/law enforcement one.

Created by gwern on 2011-12-02; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-02.

gwern estimated 20% on 2011-12-02
gwern said “old URL: http://ianxz6zefk72ulzz.onion/ new URL: http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion ANN: http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=6235.msg53965#msg53965” on 2011-12-02
Jach estimated 10% on 2011-12-02
bobpage estimated 9% and said “renaming announcement is signed with a key first used in June 2011, so my 9% is “they turned the owner at around the same time of the renaming”” on 2011-12-03
Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-12-03
chemotaxis101 estimated 15% on 2011-12-06
Serge estimated 10% on 2011-12-06
gwern said “so far no reason to think it. marking wrong.” on 2012-12-02
gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-02.
lndellbroc said “Bröllop Tillbehör, Bröllop Supplies, bröllopsbutiker Tillbehör, bröllop favörer, Bröllop Tillbehör grossist” on 2012-12-10
cmofonckguil said “[b][url=http://www.ou<a href="http://www.outdoorclothingdiscount.com">lesndes</a> ” on 2012-12-18
twaratmarc said “[b]<a href="http://www.t<a href="http://www.topthenorthface.org/ru/">Outlet North Face</a> ” on 2012-12-21
coetschisid said “Michael kors handbags fashion style-165 – $119.00 : , brandbagcheap.com” on 2013-03-07
gbrueggerwilb said “When to open a new topic, and how to name it!!!” on 2013-04-02
eonelle said “Help me choose my dress!!” on 2013-04-04
lndellbroc said “Help me choose my dress!!” on 2013-04-04
coetschisid said “Help me choose my dress!!” on 2013-04-05
gbrueggerwilb said “Help me choose my dress!!” on 2013-04-05
ethaneshaw said “Help me choose my dress!!” on 2013-04-05
ndarringnorm said “Help me choose my dress!!” on 2013-04-05
ahcaspariliza said “Help me choose my dress!!” on 2013-04-06
cmofonckguil said “Help me choose my dress!!” on 2013-04-06
cmofonckguil said “Help me choose my dress!!” on 2013-04-06
cmofonckguil said “Help me choose my dress!!” on 2013-04-06
twaratmarc said “Help me choose my dress!!” on 2013-04-06
gbrueggerwilb said “When to start wedding dress shopping” on 2013-04-08
coetschisid said “When to start wedding dress shopping” on 2013-04-08
eonelle said “When to start wedding dress shopping” on 2013-04-09
eonelle said “Help me choose my dress!!” on 2013-04-09
ethaneshaw said “When to start wedding dress shopping” on 2013-04-10
ahcaspariliza said “When to start wedding dress shopping” on 2013-04-10
twaratmarc said “When to start wedding dress shopping” on 2013-04-10
ethaneshaw said “Help me choose my dress!!” on 2013-04-11
coetschisid said “Help me choose my dress!!” on 2013-04-11
lndellbroc said “Am I the only one who doesn’t want a White Dress?” on 2013-04-11
ethaneshaw said “Am I the only one who doesn’t want a White Dress?” on 2013-04-12
ndarringnorm said “Help me choose my dress!!” on 2013-04-12
coetschisid said “Am I the only one who doesn’t want a White Dress?” on 2013-04-12
gbrueggerwilb said “Am I the only one who doesn’t want a White Dress?” on 2013-04-12
twaratmarc said “Am I the only one who doesn’t want a White Dress?” on 2013-04-13
cmofonckguil said “Am I the only one who doesn’t want a White Dress?” on 2013-04-14

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