The new Silk Road URL will be revealed to be a scam/phishing/law enforcement one.

Created by gwern on 2011-12-02; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-02.

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  • Jach estimated 10% on 2011-12-02
  • bobpage estimated 9% and said “renaming announcement is signed with a key first used in June 2011, so my 9% is “they turned the owner at around the same time of the renaming”on 2011-12-03
  • Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-12-03
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 15% on 2011-12-06
  • Serge estimated 10% on 2011-12-06
  • gwern said “so far no reason to think it. marking wrong.on 2012-12-02
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-02.
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