The new Silk Road URL will be revealed to be a scam/phishing/law enforcement one.

Created by gwern on 2011-12-02; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-02.

  • gwern estimated 20% on 2011-12-02
  • gwern said “old URL: http://ianxz6zefk72ulzz.onion/ new URL: http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion ANN: http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=6235.msg53965#msg53965on 2011-12-02
  • Jach estimated 10% on 2011-12-02
  • bobpage estimated 9% and said “renaming announcement is signed with a key first used in June 2011, so my 9% is “they turned the owner at around the same time of the renaming”on 2011-12-03
  • Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-12-03
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 15% on 2011-12-06
  • Serge estimated 10% on 2011-12-06
  • gwern said “so far no reason to think it. marking wrong.on 2012-12-02
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-02.
  • lndellbroc said “Bröllop Tillbehör, Bröllop Supplies, bröllopsbutiker Tillbehör, bröllop favörer, Bröllop Tillbehör grossiston 2012-12-10
  • cmofonckguil said “[b][url=http://www.ou<strong><a href="http://www.outdoorclothingdiscount.com">lesndes</a></strong><br> on 2012-12-18
  • twaratmarc said “[b]<a href="http://www.t<strong><a href="http://www.topthenorthface.org/ru/">Outlet North Face</a></strong><br> on 2012-12-21
  • coetschisid said “Michael kors handbags fashion style-165 – $119.00 : , brandbagcheap.comon 2013-03-07
  • gbrueggerwilb said “When to open a new topic, and how to name it!!!on 2013-04-02
  • eonelle said “Help me choose my dress!!on 2013-04-04
  • lndellbroc said “Help me choose my dress!!on 2013-04-04
  • coetschisid said “Help me choose my dress!!on 2013-04-05
  • gbrueggerwilb said “Help me choose my dress!!on 2013-04-05
  • ethaneshaw said “Help me choose my dress!!on 2013-04-05
  • ndarringnorm said “Help me choose my dress!!on 2013-04-05
  • ahcaspariliza said “Help me choose my dress!!on 2013-04-06
  • cmofonckguil said “Help me choose my dress!!on 2013-04-06
  • cmofonckguil said “Help me choose my dress!!on 2013-04-06
  • cmofonckguil said “Help me choose my dress!!on 2013-04-06
  • twaratmarc said “Help me choose my dress!!on 2013-04-06
  • gbrueggerwilb said “When to start wedding dress shoppingon 2013-04-08
  • coetschisid said “When to start wedding dress shoppingon 2013-04-08
  • eonelle said “When to start wedding dress shoppingon 2013-04-09
  • eonelle said “Help me choose my dress!!on 2013-04-09
  • ethaneshaw said “When to start wedding dress shoppingon 2013-04-10
  • ahcaspariliza said “When to start wedding dress shoppingon 2013-04-10
  • twaratmarc said “When to start wedding dress shoppingon 2013-04-10
  • ethaneshaw said “Help me choose my dress!!on 2013-04-11
  • coetschisid said “Help me choose my dress!!on 2013-04-11
  • lndellbroc said “Am I the only one who doesn’t want a White Dress?on 2013-04-11
  • ethaneshaw said “Am I the only one who doesn’t want a White Dress?on 2013-04-12
  • ndarringnorm said “Help me choose my dress!!on 2013-04-12
  • coetschisid said “Am I the only one who doesn’t want a White Dress?on 2013-04-12
  • gbrueggerwilb said “Am I the only one who doesn’t want a White Dress?on 2013-04-12
  • twaratmarc said “Am I the only one who doesn’t want a White Dress?on 2013-04-13
  • cmofonckguil said “Am I the only one who doesn’t want a White Dress?on 2013-04-14
  • lndellbroc said “[b][url=http://www.cheaptomsshoescanda.com/jp/]2014新しいスタイルは靴をタム[/url][/b][b][url=http://www.cheaptomsshoescanda.com/jp/]TOMS公式アウトレットストア[/url][/b]<strong><a href="http://www.cheaptomsshoescanda.com/jp/">セール激安トムズシューズ2014ア9 days ago

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